Our School is composed of a rigorous team of local and international academics specialized in various disciplines of economics. The following section "Publications" provides details to all peer-reviewed publications in English journals (all of them listed in SSCI, many of them highly cited in Q1 and Q2 journals according to the Journal Citation Ranking JCR).
Learn more about our publications and government funded research projects written in the Chinese language on our Chinese website.Full List of Publications
Selected, recent publications in Q1-Journals (JCR Ranking)
El-Shagi, M. / Zhang, L.: Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th-Century China: A Macro Approach, in: China Economic Review, Vol. 63, 2020
We assess the role of silver price fluctuations in Chinese trade and GDP during the late Qing dynasty, when China still had a bimetallic (silver/copper) monetary system in which silver was mostly used for international trade. Using a structural VAR (SVAR) with blockwise recursive identification, we identify the impact of silver price shocks on the Chinese economy from 1867 - when trade data became available - to 1910, when the Qing dynasty collapsed. The series of negative silver price shocks during this period had sizable impact on both imports and exports, but only a very minor effect on the trade balance, and only marginal impact on growth. Stronger effects were mitigated by inelastic export quantities. Generally, while considerable on impact, the effect of silver price shocks is only short lived and has no persistent effects in either direction.
Sun, R.: Monetary Policy Announcements and Market Interest Rates´ Response: Evidence from China, 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 113, 2020
This paper examines the daily responses of market interest rates to three monetary policy announcements in China using the event-study approach. I find that the interest rate responses to announced changes in the regulated retail interest rate and the required reserve ratio are positive and significant at all maturities of interest rates but smaller at the long end of the yield curve. By contrast, market interest rates barely respond to the qualitative MPC announcements about the monetary policy stance. These findings are robust to alternative econometric methods that correct for potential bias arising from violations of the identification assumption. These findings suggest that the PBC should formulate its policy communication in a quantitative way.
Dong, B. / Ma, X. / Wang, N. / Wei, W.: Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China’s regional economy: A dynamic multi-regional CGE analysis, in: Energy Economics, Vol. 86, 103762, 2020
A multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model is constructed in this paper to explore the macroeconomic effects of international oil price shocks and RMB exchange rate changes on China. The results show that (1) in terms of regional development differences, the decrease in international oil prices and depreciation of RMB are both conducive to economic growth, although the impact of RMB devaluation is more obvious. Increases in international oil prices will further widen the output gap between the rich and the poor regions, whereas oil price decreases and RMB devaluation will narrow the regional development differences. (2) In terms of employment, the depreciation of the exchange rate and the decline in international oil prices will help increase the employment rate in most regions, but oil price hikes will be most beneficial for improving oil industry employment in the northeast. (3) The impact of oil price volatility is asymmetric. Compared with rising oil prices, falling oil prices have significantly greater effects on GDP, industrial output, employment and other aspects. Furthermore, the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations and oil price changes on the regional economy exhibit a time lag.
El-Shagi, M. / Kelly, Logan J.: What can we learn from country level liquidity in the EMU?, in: Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 42, pp. 75-83, 2019
The recent experience during the debt and banking crises in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has demonstrated how important it is to consider liquidity (or rather the lack therof) in macroeconomics. Similar to the Fed´s policy during the US real estate crisis, the ECB took huge efforts to insert liquidity into the banking sector to prevent further financial turmoil, only to find that the transmission mechanism was severely hampered. Strong heterogeneity during the crises accentuated the difficulties of a common monetary policy. The main contribution of this paper is to show that properly measured liquidity contains substantial information on macroeconomic dynamics. Liquidity overcomes two problems of using interest rates (and interest rate spreads) as the main indicator of the monetary and financial side of the economy. First, contrary to the policy rate, they include information on the different impacts of monetary shocks between countries, thereby accounting for heterogeneity in the transmission mechanism and the different states of the banking sector. Second, (growth rates of) liquidity indicators are not subject to the zero lower bound problem and are thus particularly useful when considering samples, such as the recent crisis. We propose a range of liquidity indicators, based on Theil-Törnqvist index number, that are designed to account for measurement problems during times of financial turmoil, when liquidity preference - and thus the price of liquidity - can change quickly. We then study the information content of those variables.