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Forthcoming publications in refereed journals

Alphabetical Order

Ahn, Y.B. / Tsuchiya,Y.: Asymmetric loss of macroeconomic forecasts in South Asia: evidence from the SPF survey of India, Indonesia, and Singapore, in: Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, forthcoming

Abstract

This paper examines asymmetry of the loss function of professional forecasters for output growth, inflation, and exchange rate forecasts, based on the survey of professional forecasts (SPF) data of three South Asian countries (India, Indonesia, and Singapore). Our results provide India’s unbiased output growth forecasts and under-predicted inflation and exchange rate forecasts; Indonesia’s broadly unbiased forecasts; and Singapore’s under-predicted output growth forecasts and unbiased inflation and exchange rate forecasts. Testing the rationality of all three countries’ SPF forecasts, we find that all are rational under an asymmetric loss function but not under a symmetric loss function.

Ahn, Y.B. / Tsuchiya, Y.: Directional Accuracy of Singapore’s Macroeconomic Forecasts, The Singapore Economic Review, forthcoming
Chiang, T.- F.: Financial Capability and Investment Management of Chinese Households: An Application of Hybrid Item Response Theory, in: Journal of Consumer Affairs (forthcoming)
El-Shagi, M. / Jiang, L.: Monetary policy transmission in China: Dual shocks with dual bond markets, in: Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming)
El-Shagi, M.: When Does Monetary Measurement Matter (Most)?, in: Macroeconomic Dynamics (forthcoming)
El-Shagi, M. / Zheng, Y.: Money Demand in China - A Meta Analysis, in: Emerging Market, Finance and Trade (forthcoming)
Sun, R.: Requiem for the interest rate controls in China, in: Pacific Economic Review (forthcoming)

Publications in refereed journals in 2020

Alphabetical Order

Benchimol, J. / El-Shagi, M.: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 91, pp. 386 - 402, 2020

Abstract

Governments, central banks, and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven form of political uncertainty and assess the forecasting performance of market-based and professional inflation and exchange rate forecasts in Israel. We show that expert forecasts are better than market-based forecasts, particularly during periods of terrorism. However, the performance of both market-based and expert forecasts is significantly worse during such periods. Thus, policymakers should be particularly attentive to terrorism when considering inflation and exchange rate forecasts.

Dong, B. / Ma, X. / Wang, N. / Wei, W.: Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China’s regional economy: A dynamic multi-regional CGE analysis, in: Energy Economics, Vol. 86, 103762, 2020
El-Shagi, M. / Zhang, L.: Trade Effects of Silver Price Fluctuations in 19th-Century China: A Macro Approach, in: China Economic Review, Vol. 63, 2020
Sun, R.: Monetary Policy Announcements and Market Interest Rates´ Response: Evidence from China, 2020, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 113, 2020
Tsai, P.-H. / Huang, C.-Y. / Chiang, T.- F.: Fiscal Expenditure and Industrial Land Price in China: Theory and Evidence, in: Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 38 (4), pp. 593-606, 2020

Publications in refereed journals in 2019

Alphabetical Order

El-Shagi, M. / Kelly, Logan J.: What can we learn from country level liquidity in the EMU?, in: Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 42, pp- 75-83, 2019

Abstract

The recent experience during the debt and banking crises in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has demonstrated how important it is to consider liquidity (or rather the lack therof) in macroeconomics. Similar to the Fed´s policy during the US real estate crisis, the ECB took huge efforts to insert liquidity into the banking sector to prevent further financial turmoil, only to find that the transmission mechanism was severely hampered. Strong heterogeneity during the crises accentuated the difficulties of a common monetary policy. The main contribution of this paper is to show that properly measured liquidity contains substantial information on macroeconomic dynamics. Liquidity overcomes two problems of using interest rates (and interest rate spreads) as the main indicator of the monetary and financial side of the economy. First, contrary to the policy rate, they include information on the different impacts of monetary shocks between countries, thereby accounting for heterogeneity in the transmission mechanism and the different states of the banking sector. Second, (growth rates of) liquidity indicators are not subject to the zero lower bound problem and are thus particularly useful when considering samples, such as the recent crisis. We propose a range of liquidity indicators, based on Theil-Törnqvist index number, that are designed to account for measurement problems during times of financial turmoil, when liquidity preference - and thus the price of liquidity - can change quickly. We then study the information content of those variables.

El-Shagi, M. / Shao M.: The Impact of Inequality and Redistribution on Growth, in: Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 65 (2), pp. 239-263, 2019
El-Shagi, M. / Yamarik, S.: State-Level Capital and Investment: Re finements and Update, Growth and Change, A Journal of Urban and Regional Policy, Vol. 50 (4), pp. 1411 - 1422, 2019
El-Shagi, M.: A Simple Estimator for Smooth Local Projections, in: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 26 (10), pp. 830 - 834, 2019
El-Shagi, M.: Rationality tests in the presence of instabilities in finite samples, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 79, pp. 242 - 246, 2019
Klingelhöfer, J. / Sun, R.: Macroprudential Policy, Central Banks and Financial Stability: Evidence from China, in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 93, pp. 19 - 41, 2019
Klingelhöfer, J.: Lobbying and Elections, in: Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 71 (1), pp. 1-17, 2019
Zhang, Y. / Xu, Z. / Palma, M.A.: Conveniently dependent or naively overconfident? An experimental study on the reaction to external help, in: Plos One 4(5): e0216617.

Publications in refereed journals in 2018

Alphabetical Order

Ahn, Y. B. / Tsuchiya, Y.: Directional Accuracy of Urban Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts in China, in: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 54(6), pp. 141-1424, 2018

Abstract

We evaluate the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts based on the survey data of urban savings account holders in China. By using a new market-timing test, we show that the urban consumers' expectations of inflation are not as useful predictor of the overall consumer price index (CPI) and the urban household CPI (U-CPI) in China. However, after our in-depth analysis using the inflation rate of each cagtegory in the U-CPI basket, we find that the consumers' forecasts are useful in predicting the movement of the residence component in the U-CPI basket since the third quarter of 2009.

Bandyopadhyay T. / Dong, B / Qin, C.-Z.: A Signaling Theory of Limited Supply, in: Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, Vol. 174 (3), pp. 476-494 (19), 2018
Dong, B. / Guo, Y.: The impact of the first Sino-Japanese war indemnity: Transfer problem reexamined, in: International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 56, pp. 15-26, 2018
Dong, B. / Wei, W. / Ma, X. / Li P.: On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China, in: Applied Economics, Vol. 50 (4), pp. 389-406, 2018
El-Shagi, M. / von Schweinitz, G.: The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields, in: Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 97, pp. 197-218, 2018
Fidrmuc J. / Korhonen, I.: Meta-Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation, in: Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 23 (3), pp. 385-410, 2018
Gibson, M. / Wang, Q.: Sanitary and phytosanitary measures in Chinese agriculture exports: the role of trade intermediaries, in: Applied Economics, Vol. 50 (27), pp. 3007-3015, 2018
Jiang, L.: Dividend taxes and investment during the U.S. Great Depression, in: Economics Letters, Vol. 167, pp. 147-151, 2018
Kim, J. / Jung, H: Time series forecasting using functional partial least square regression with stochastic volatility, GARCH, and exponential smoothing, in: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 37 (3), pp. 269-280, 2018
Kim, J. / Jung, H.: Dependence Structure between Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates, The Energy Journal, Vol. 39 (2), pp. 233-258, April 2018
Kim, J. / Jung, H.: Relationship between Oil Price and Exchange Rate by FDA and Copula, in: Applied Economics, Vol. 50 (22), pp. 2486-2499, 2018
Sun, Rongrong: A Narrative indicator of Monetary Conditions in China, in: International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 14 (4), 2018
Wang, Q. / Gibson, M.J.: Exporters in cross section: direct vs. intermediated trade, in: Review of International Economics, Vol. 26 (1), pp. 84-95, 2018
Wei, W. / Zhang, J. / Dong, B. / Wang, H.: Quantifying the Impacts of China’s Currency Depreciation and Capital Control: A CGE Analysis, in: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 25 (14), pp. 964-967, 2018

Publications in refereed journals in 2017

Alphabetical Order

Chiang, T.-F. / Xiao, J.J.: Household Characteristics and the Change of Financial Risk Tolerance during the Financial Crisis in the US, in: International Journal of Consumer Studies, Vol. 41 (5), pp. 484–493, 2017

Abstract

This study examines how household financial risk tolerance is affected during the period of 2007 and 2009, which covered the eve and through of the financial crisis in the United States and what types of households are associated with the change of risk tolerance. Risk tolerance is measured bz two objective indicators, narrowlz and broadlz defined stock ownership, and a subjective indicator, risk taking attitude. Using panel data from 2007 to 2009 Survez of Consumer Finances, results show that during the financial crisis, the households in general are more risk averse, indicated by withdrawing from stock markets and holding a less risk taking attitude. In addition, Black and Hispanic households are more likely and households with higher education are less likely to withdraw from stock markets. Older households are less likely to change in risk tolerance during the financial crisis, as are richer households. The findings show panel data could generate novel results and contribute to the literature of financial risk tolerance.

Dong B. / Wong K. S.: A Theory of Comparative Advantage with Specialized Subnational Regions, in: Review of International Economics, Vol. 25 (3), pp. 567-577, 2017
Dong, B. / Gu, X. / Song, H.: Capital Market Liberalization: Optimal Tradeoff and Bargaining Delay, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 39, 2017, pp. 78-88
El-Shagi, M. / Kelly, L.J.: For They Know Not What They Do – Monetary Policy During the Great Moderation, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 24 (10), pp. 717-721, 2017
El-Shagi, M. / Michelsen, C. / Rosenschon, S.: Empirics on the long-run effects of building energy codes in the housing market, in: Land Economics, Vol. 93 (4), pp. 585-607, 2017
El-Shagi, M.: Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 65, pp. 1-8, 2017
Ghosh, S. / Lien, D. and Yamarik, S.: Does the Confucius Institute Network Impact Cultural Distance? A Panel Data Analysis of Cross-Border Flows in and out of China, in: Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 31 (3) 2017, pp. 299–323
Jung, H. / Choi, C.: Does an Economically Active Population Matter in Housing Price?, in: Applied Economics Letters, 2017, Vol. 24 (15), pp. 1061-1064
Jung, H. / Kim, J. / Qin, L.: A New Generalized Volatility Proxy via the Stochastic Volatility Model, Applied Economics, Vol. 49 (23), pp. 2259-2268, 2017
Jung, K.M.: Liquidity Risk and Time-Varying Correlation between Equity and Currency Returns, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 55 (2), pp. 898–919, 2017
Kapounek, S. / Kučerová, Z. / Fidrmuc, J.: Lending conditions in EU: The role of credit demand and supply, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 67, pp. 285-293, 2017
Kibriya S. / Xu Z. / Zhang Y. : The Negative Consequences of School Bullying on Academic Performance and Mitigation through Female Teacher Participation: Evidence from Ghana, in: Applied Economics, Vol. 49 (25), pp. 2480-2490, 2017
Kim, J. / Jung, H.: Can Asymmetric Conditional Volatility Imply Asymmetric Tail Dependence?, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 64, pp. 409-418, 2017
Ku Y.-C. / Chiang T.-F. / Chang S.- M.: Is What You Choose What You Want? - Outlier Detection in Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis, in: Marketing Letters, Vol. 28, pp. 29-42, 2017
Li, X. / Chen, P. / Wang, X.: Impacts of renewables and socioeconomic factors on electric vehicle demands – Panel data studies across 14 countries, in: Energy Policy, Vol. 107, pp. 473-478, 2017
Shao, M.: How Do Mean Division Shares Affect Development and Growth?, in: Panoeconomicus, Vol. 64 (5), pp. 525-545, 2017

Publications in refereed journals in 2016

Alphabetical Order

Dong, B. / Guo, G. / Wang, F. / Qian, X.: Capacity Constraint, Merger Paradox and Welfare-improving Pro-Merger Policy, in: Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Vol. 57 (1), pp. 1 - 26, 2016

Abstract

In this paper, we show that the "Merger Paradox" (Salant, Switzer and Reynolds, 1983) is mitigated when capacity constraint is considered. This is because outside firms who do not participate in a merger cannot expand their output beyond their existing capacity, and therefore, Stigler type of free riding is alleviated. When overcapacity is socially costly, it is also shown that a pro-merger fiscal policy may discourage ex ante capacity investment and hence alleviate overcapacity, if capacity building is not too costly. Furthermore, it can be shown that the optimal pro-merger subsidy is always welfare improving when it discourages capacity building.

Dong, B. / Song, H. / Qian, X.: International R&D Collaboration and Strategic Trade Policy, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 20 (1), pp. 250-260, 2016
Dong, B. / Wang, F. / Guo, Y.: The Global EKCs, in: International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 43 (C), pp. 210 - 221, 2016
El-Shagi, M. / Giesen, S. / Jung, A.: Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach, in: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 32 (2), pp. 313 - 323, 2016
El-Shagi, M. / Lindner, A. / von Schweinitz, Gregor: Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis, in: Review of International Economics, Vol. 24 (1), pp. 37-66, 2016
El-Shagi, M. / von Schweinitz, G.: The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach, in: Computational Economics, Vol. 47 (2), pp. 193 - 217, 2016
El-Shagi, M.; von Schweinitz, G.: The Qual VAR Revisited – Good Forecast, Bad Story, in: Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 19 (2), pp. 293 – 322, 2016
Fidrmuc, Jan / Fidrmuc, Jarko: Foreign Languages and Trade: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, in: Empirical Economics, Vol. 50 (1), pp. 31-49, 2016
Jung, K.M. / J.H. Pyun: International Reserves for Emerging Economies: A Liquidity Approach, in: Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 68, pp. 230-257, 2016
Kim, J.-M. / Jung, H.: Linear time-varying regression with Copula-DCC-GARCH models for volatility, in: Economics Letters, Vol 145, pp. 262 - 265, 2016
Sheng, P. / Guo X.: The Long-run and Short-run Impacts of Urbanization on Carbon Dioxide Emissions, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 53, pp. 208 - 215, 2016
Yamarik, S. / El-Shagi, M. / Yamashiro, G.: Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data, in: Economics Letters, Vol. 148, pp. 63-67, 2016
Yang, J. / Zhang, T. / Sheng, P. / Shackman J.D.: Carbon dioxide emissions and interregional economic convergence in China, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 52 (B), pp. 672-680, 2016
Zhang, Y. / Palma A. M. / Xu Z.: Unintended effects of the Alabama HB 56 immigration law on crime: A preliminary analysis, in: Economics Letters, Vol. 147, pp. 68 - 71, 2016

Publications in refereed journals in 2015

Alphabetical Order

Chiang, T-.F- / Pan, J.N. / Huang, Jr-T.: Empirical Study of the Local Government Deficit, Land Finance and Real Estate Market in China, in: China Economic Review, Vol. 32, pp. 57–67, 2015

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore an important issue concerning the relationship among the local government deficit, land finance and real estate markets in China. This study uses a panel data of 30 provinces in China during 1999–2010 to estimate the panel smooth transition regression model. Since the estimated transition threshold value is 14.62, provinces with the ratio of fiscal deficits to GDP of greater than 14.62% are categorized as in the high fiscal difficulty (HFD) regime. Otherwise they are in the low fiscal difficulty (LFD) regime. The primary finding of this study is that the land leasing fee has a significantly positive influence on the total value of commodity buildings sold in the LFD regime. In addition, the local fiscal deficit has a significantly positive impact on the real estate market in the LFD regime, but this impact turns to be negative in the HFD regime.

Choi S. M. / Wang Q.: Co-movement of the Chinese and U.S. Aggregate Stock Returns, Applied Economics, Vol. 47 (50), pp. 5337 - 5353, 2015
Dong B. / Gong J. / Peng K. / Zhao Z.: Little Divergence: Evidence from the Cotton Textiles in Japan and China 1868-1930, in: Review of Development Economics, Vol. 19 (4), pp. 776-796, 2015
Dong B. / Huang B. / Gu X.: Inequality, Saving and Global Imbalances: A New Theory with Evidence from OECD and Asia Countries, in: The World Economy, Vol. 38 (1), pp. 110-135, 2015
Dong, B. / Zhou, T.: A Moral Hazard Model of Parental Care, in: Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, Vol. 207 (4), pp. 101-115, 2013
El-Shagi, M. / Jung, A.: Does the Greenspan Era Provide Evidence for Leadership in the FOMC?, in: Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 43, pp. 173 - 190, 2015
El-Shagi, M. / Jung, A.: Have Minutes Helped Markets to Predict the MPC´s Monetary Policy Decisions?, in: European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 39, pp. 222 - 234, 2015
El-Shagi, M. / von Schweinitz, G.: Risk and Return - Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?, in: Economics Letters, Vol. 129, pp. 49 - 51, 2015
Xie W. / Sheng P. / Guo X.: Coal, Oil, and Clean Energy: Which Contributes Most to the Low Energy Efficiency in China, in: Utilities Policy, Vol. 35, pp. 67 - 71, 2015

Publications in refereed journals in 2014

Alphabetical Order

B. Dong / J. Gong: Velocity of Money and Economic Development in Medieval China: The case of Northern Song, Review of Development Economics, Vol.18 (2), pp. 203 - 217, 2014

Abstract

A Fisher's Identity model is established to study Northern Song China's (960–1126) level of velocity of money using money supply and gross domestic product (GDP) data. Results of the exercise help rationalize what is called the “bronze coin” puzzle, which is the massive amount of minted coins seemingly incommensurate with price levels. It is shown that the velocity of money was increasing and comparable to pre-industrial England levels. This paper argues that the driving forces of the short supply of money are greater than usual hoarding by the state treasury and coin outflows to Song's trading partners via smuggling. Since velocity of money is an indicator of economic development in ancient societies, this paper provides a realistic validation of the premise of the Needham puzzle.

Dong B. / Li X.: Estimating Outage Costs in China: a modified Tobit Model, in: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 50 (5), pp. 141–152, 2014
Dong B. / Wang F. / An C. / Yin X.: China’s Structural Change: A new SDA model, in: Economic Modelling, Vol. 43, pp. 279 - 292, 2014
Dong B. / Wang Y.: A Preemptive Model of Value Destroying Mergers, in: Journal of Economics, Vol.113, pp. 187 - 204, 2014
Liu N. / Ye X. / Yang H. / Li Y. / Leipnik M.: Manufacturing firm heterogeneity and regional economic growth difference in China. Regional Science Policy and Practice, Vol. 6 (2), pp. 213 – 230, 2014
Sheng, P. / Yang, J.: Low-energy development in China, in: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 21 (9), pp. 617 - 621, 2014

Publications in refereed journals in 2013

Alphabetical Order

Wang, Y.: Foreign Acquisition, Domestic Acquisition and Plant Survival, in: International Journal of the Economics of Business, Vol. 20 (3), pp. 307-324, 2013

Abstract

The literature has postulated that foreign capital participation (through mergers and acquisitions) is associated with more advanced technologies being injected into the acquired targets, and thus it might be reasonable to assume that foreign acquisitions would generate larger effects than domestic acquisitions to the acquired targets. This paper contributes to the discussion by examining the effects of foreign acquisitions versus domestic acquisitions on plant survival to both born-domestic and born-foreign plants. Using 26 cohorts of plants born in Canada between 1973 and 1998, the paper finds that both foreign acquisitions and domestic acquisitions significantly increase life durations of born-domestic plants, although domestic acquisitions generate larger effects. For born-foreign plants, neither foreign acquisitions nor domestic acquisitions significantly change their life span.

Schiff M. / Wang Y: North–South Trade-related Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth: Are Small States Different?, in: International Economic Journal, Vol. 27 (3), pp. 399-414, 2013
Dong, B.: Cost-Based Antidumping as A Repeated Game, in: Economic Record, Vol. 89, pp. 95-105, 2013
Dong, B. / Wang, F.Y. / Guo, G.: Dynamic Moral Hazard and Executive Stock Options, in: Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 18 (2), pp. 259-279, 2013

Publications in refereed journals in 2011

Alphabetical Order

Hou. J: The role of the state in structural transition and economic crisis, in: Social Science Journal, Vol. 48 (1), pp. 1-12, 2011

Abstract

As academicians, we emphasize to our students to keep up with class, and always read ahead. When I took over as President-elect of the WSSA in April of 2008, while busy communicating with the Section Coordinators and plan the 2009 Annual Conference (Reno, Nevada), I would occasionally pause and ponder what I would present for my President Address (reading ahead). What do I know that would be of interest to the general membership of the WSSA? I naturally thought of China and its economic reform, as half of my research output over the last decade has been in this area. Then, the subprime crisis came to be, and I wondered about how the economy would cope. I can claim some expertise to the former, but of no special authority regarding the latter. However, I do have some thoughts regarding the role of the State during such economic upheavals, but in a more conceptual manner than a policy solution.

Hou, J.: The aging of the Chinese population and the cost of health care, in: Social Science Journal, Vol. 48 (3), pp. 514-526, 2011
Hou, J: Economic Reform of China: Cause and effects, in: Social Science Journal, Vol. 48 (3), pp. 419 - 439, 2011
Xu G. / Song D.: An Empirical Study on the Environmental Kuznets Curve for China's Carbon Emissions: Based on Provincial Panel Data, in: Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment, Vol. 9 (3), 2011

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